Congressional Budget Cuts

I find it interesting that Congress wants to cut funding for education in order to keep the deficit down.  I find it ironic that they even consider doing it right now when our economy is so fragile.  According to Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics, this could result in the loss of over 700,000 jobs. What?  Yes.  700,000 jobs.  Just what we need.....higher unemployment.

Richard Koo who is is the Chief Economist of Nomura Research Institute also has an interesting view.  He says that cutting the stimulus packages, and especially cutting educational funding is the absolutely wrong thing to do.

Check out his video:

Honey Bees and Church Gossip?

Scientists have been modeling how swarm behavior in insects can be used for robotics.  William Spears (http://www.swarmotics.com/) has toyed with algorithms to emulate motivation that bees get for discovering a new food source. It is dangerous for bees go foraging for new sources of food.  But when they do it they receive octopomine- a neuro-stimulant chemical that makes them feel good.

Humans have similar rewards.  We generate dopamine and serotonin when we discover something new - or receive a prize unsuspectedly.  A good example is when we win at a slot machine or a gambling table.  Scientists have discovered that when gamblers have the highest amount of dopamine, is when they are about to win...not after.  Interesting.  Anticipation of an unsuspected reward is what triggers it.  This is perhaps why we are addicted to gambling among other things. 

In my studies, I am reminded of one of my favorite books by Malcolm Gladwell - The Tipping Point.  Gladwell views the world through the lens of epidemics.  What is particularly interesting is how epidemics resemble swarm behavior.  Scientists are using artificial intelligence to emulate pathogens in order to determine possible pathways that a pathogen might take during a pandemic - say that 5 times quickly (see http://www.swarmotics.com/uploads/virus.else.pdf).  My question is, what about a pandemic of ideas?  What about the spread of religious dogma - for good or bad.  Could we describe terrorism as a pandemic of bad ideas?  One might say yes - but it depends on what side you are on.  Could swarm intelligence, and our models of pathogen routes help us look at how radical ideas are adopted? Perhaps....

I am fascinated by how this is done in American politics today as well as local gossip at church; ideas spread as do viruses as do bees foraging for a new food source.  You spread a piece of gossip - you probably get a dopamine increase.  Knowing how ideas spread as pathogens could be very helpful.  I think we know more about it than we realize, we just don't quantify it as would a swarm scientist creating a robot.

Decision Making and Group Intelligence

As I have been studying the benefits of Swarm Intelligence, I am reminded of some Forex Seminars that I did with Rob Booker. Rob and I noticed in a few seminars that if we divided people up in groups to trade, they traded better. This was an extension of what we were doing online. We were teaching massive amounts of people at the same time and it only made sense to divide people up into online collaborative groups. People then could answer their own questions and it lifted the load on us as instructors - especially Rob who was in huge demand.
Group decision making worked in some aspects and not in others. We noticed that in some of the groups, live and virtual, that the group could not come to a good clear decision. Mind you, that in trading in general everything can be simplified into either buying, selling, or going sideways (which is buying and selling so fast that the currency pair is just going nowhere). Arguments would ensue and people began to drop out.

People with the stronger personality (or experience)  usually persuaded the group to decide to do what they wanted.  Their trading usually was terrible.  We stopped forming groups after a while.

The Swarm Intelligence Solution

If I could go back in time I would do things differently.  One of the principles of swarm intelligence and decision making, is that the individuals of the group need to have some buffer of independence.  Strong personalities need to be guarded against.  Strong persuasive personalities really can mess up getting to the right decisions.  However, according to Len Fisher's book The Perfect Swarm taking the average decision of a group of people is very accurate.  So if I had a group of traders who were fairly well informed, make independent decisions on the direction of a currency pair, I would take all an average of all of their votes.  According to Fisher, this is very accurate.  


Additionally, when Rob went to work for IBFX as their head currency analyst, he studied the flow of traders decisions (this is extremely insightful information).  He noted that the majority of the traders were right in the overall direction of the market.  They just had poor money management and thus lost their accounts.  In other words, when the currency pair went against them, they didn't have enough capital to withstand the draw down on their account.  This meshes with the hundreds of interviews and email exchanges that I have had with traders.

Brokers with the ability to view the overall price action flow of traders could greatly benefit from taking the average of trader positions.  I would be very interested in what their findings would be.

Swarm Intelligence Project

Here are a few questions meant for my Technology Integration Project on Swarm Intelligence.


Rationale: (why this learning experience will benefit from the infusion of appropriate technologies, and how did you make your decisions?


Learning about Swarm Intelligence is gaining popularity. People like to discuss the implications of swarm intelligence and how it can help us solve problems especially in business settings and perhaps political settings. I feel that by infusing appropriate technologies we can discover new aspects of using SI and actually experience its potential. 



Who are your learners? (Be specific, and keep building this up over time with lots of details)


Learners would include:

1. Students and instructors of higher education
2. Business administration
3. Investment brokers

What are your learning goals? (again, be specific, what are the overall goals, and what are the main topics? Do not confuse learning goals with activities)

1. Understand what Swarm Intelligence is and what it is not. Know how it has been used in the past and present.
2. Understand the tools and techniques you would need to know in order to use the “Swarm” to solve problems.
3. Understand the possible applications to use swarm intelligence in business
   a. How could we use it to solve problems in an average business office setting?
   b. How could Swarm Intelligence be used in investment portfolios?
   c. How can schools and universities use Swarm Intelligence to achieve educational goals?

How will you know what your learners know? (assessment, both formative and summative)


Students will participate in online quizzes and or tests. Students will be required to participate in a project where they solve a problem using Swarm Intelligence techniques.

Swarm Intelligence

Pedestrians also form "rivers" when
they walk in crowds,  just like fish.

Swarm intelligence is something that we all participate in albeit, unintentionally.   To the left is a crowd of New Yorkers walking down Fifth Avenue. As they do so they form "rivers" and or "currents" not unlike a school of fish or a flock of birds. 

I think that I want to do my project on Swarm Intelligence.  I want to see and to show how much we belong to a society that has swarm behavior.  I also want to investigate how swarms in nature behave and how we can learn from nature in our own human swarms.  What are the characteristics of a swarm?  What rules does a swarm obey?  What is the difference between swarm intelligence and mob intelligence?  What are the best examples of swarm intelligence that we have in our society today?  Can we use swarm intelligence to help our society?  To stop war and or hunger?  This is what I want to investigate.